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So how does one find themself in a position of consuming enough caffeine in one day to kill an 18 pound rat?
So how does one find themself in a position of consuming enough caffeine in one day to kill an 18 pound rat?<sup>1</sup> We argue that this situation can be modeled as an Arms Race for a few different reasons. To begin with, coffee consumption, like the attainment of nuclear weapons, or the purchase of luxury items is something that will start a vicious cycle. If one country begins to build up armaments, another country will need to build up armaments just as if Prof. McPhail drinks ten cups of coffee today, Prof. McPhail will need to drink ten cups of coffee tomorrow. In addition, the two models will have similar results. Unless there is interference people will continue to conspicuously consume until they cannot spend any more. In this model, Prof. McPhail will continue to drink more coffee until he cannot drink any more coffee. We believe that using the same techniques applied to Conspicuous Consumption and to Arms Races, we can accurately model Prof. McPhail's coffee consumption.






Coffee Health Risks: For the moderate drinker, coffee is safe says Harvard Women’s Health Watch
In this model it is Prof. McPhail who is playing against himself. Player 1 (row player) is Professor McPhail today, and Player 2 (column player) is Professor McPhail tomorrow.


( Boston , MA ) Despite 20 years of reassuring research, many people still avoid caffeinated coffee because they worry about its health effects. However, current research reveals that in moderation—a few cups a day—coffee is a safe beverage that may even offer some health benefits. The September issue of Harvard Women's Health Watch weighs the pros and cons of this popular beverage and eases the concerns of moderate coffee drinkers.
<center><font size=5><table cellspacing="3" cellpadding="5">
<tr><td  bgcolor=#eeeeee>  </td><td>'''Even More Coffee'''<td>'''Coffee'''</td><td>'''No Coffee'''</td></tr>
<tr><td>'''Even More Coffee'''</td><td  bgcolor=#eeeeee>(4,2)</td><td  bgcolor=#eeeeee>(4,0)</td><td  bgcolor=#eeeeee>(4,-2)</td></tr>
<tr><td>'''Coffee'''</td><td  bgcolor=#eeeeee>(1,3)</td><td  bgcolor=#eeeeee>(1,1)</td><td  bgcolor=#eeeeee>(1,-1)</td></tr>
<tr><td>'''No Coffee'''</td><td  bgcolor=#eeeeee>(0,4)</td><td  bgcolor=#eeeeee>(0,2)</td><td  bgcolor=#eeeeee>(0,0)</td></tr>
</table></font></center>


The latest research has not only confirmed that moderate coffee consumption doesn't cause harm, it's also uncovered possible benefits. Studies show that the risk for type 2 diabetes is lower among regular coffee drinkers than among those who don't drink it. Also, coffee may reduce the risk of developing gallstones, discourage the development of colon cancer, improve cognitive function, reduce the risk of liver damage in people at high risk for liver disease, and reduce the risk of Parkinson's disease. Coffee has also been shown to improve endurance performance in long-duration physical activities.
As you can see, regardless of what action Professor McPhail takes today, once he starts to drink coffee, in order to maintain his level of output, he must always drink more and more coffee, due to his body's growing tolerance of caffeine. This leads to an arms race where Prof. McPhail must remain on the brink of caffeine posioning in order to do his work ([http://itech.dickinson.edu/wiki/index.php?title=Arms_and_Influence brinkmanship as defined by Schelling.])


For those who drink coffee to stay alert, new research suggests that you'll stay more alert, particularly if you are fighting sleep deprivation, if you spread your coffee consumption over the course of the day. For instance, if you usually drink 16 ounces in the morning, try consuming a 2-3 ounce serving every hour or so. Again, moderation is the key.


However, as the September issue notes, coffee is not completely innocent. Caffeine, coffee's main ingredient is a mild addictive stimulant. And coffee does have modest cardiovascular effects such as increased heart rate, increased blood pressure, and occasional irregular heartbeat that should be considered. Studies have been largely inconclusive regarding coffee and its effect on women's health issues such as breast health, cancer, and osteoporosis. But, the negative effects of coffee tend to emerge in excessive drinking so it is best to avoid heavy consumption.


[[Conspicuous Consumption and Game Theory]]
<font size=1><sup>1</sup> This was deduced using incredible amounts of human brainpower and information gleaned from the website http://www.erowid.org/chemicals/caffeine/caffeine_dose.shtml</font>
 
 
Back to [[Conspicuous Consumption and Game Theory]]
 
 
<center> by Rebecca Kealoha Breeden '06 and Matthew Emerson Davis '06 </center>

Latest revision as of 23:21, 2 May 2006

Can Prof. McPhail's Coffee drinking
habits be modeled as an Arms Race?



As many of us know, Prof. McPhail drinks an exorbitant amount of coffee. Our informed estimate is that Prof. McPhail consumes an average of 10 to 12 cups of coffee per day. This type of behavior is dangerous for a variety of reasons. The risks of moderate coffee consumption (Prof. McPhail's consumption would not fall in this category) include:

• Increases in blood pressure among people with high blood pressure.

• Causes insomnia, anxiety, and irritability.

• May worsen symptoms of PMS in some women.

• Can reduce fertility in women trying to conceive.

• Can cause heartburn and indigestion.

• May increase the risk of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women.

• May increase blood levels of homocysteine and the associated risk of cardiovascular disease.

We should also note that some health authorities remain concerned about the potential effects of coffee drinking on heart disease, fibrocystic breast disease, stomach ulcers, and pancreatic and colorectal cancer, although for the most part recent studies seem to be exonerating coffee on these issues. Needless to say, excessive coffee consumption can be dangerous.


So how does one find themself in a position of consuming enough caffeine in one day to kill an 18 pound rat?1 We argue that this situation can be modeled as an Arms Race for a few different reasons. To begin with, coffee consumption, like the attainment of nuclear weapons, or the purchase of luxury items is something that will start a vicious cycle. If one country begins to build up armaments, another country will need to build up armaments just as if Prof. McPhail drinks ten cups of coffee today, Prof. McPhail will need to drink ten cups of coffee tomorrow. In addition, the two models will have similar results. Unless there is interference people will continue to conspicuously consume until they cannot spend any more. In this model, Prof. McPhail will continue to drink more coffee until he cannot drink any more coffee. We believe that using the same techniques applied to Conspicuous Consumption and to Arms Races, we can accurately model Prof. McPhail's coffee consumption.


In this model it is Prof. McPhail who is playing against himself. Player 1 (row player) is Professor McPhail today, and Player 2 (column player) is Professor McPhail tomorrow.

Even More CoffeeCoffeeNo Coffee
Even More Coffee(4,2)(4,0)(4,-2)
Coffee(1,3)(1,1)(1,-1)
No Coffee(0,4)(0,2)(0,0)

As you can see, regardless of what action Professor McPhail takes today, once he starts to drink coffee, in order to maintain his level of output, he must always drink more and more coffee, due to his body's growing tolerance of caffeine. This leads to an arms race where Prof. McPhail must remain on the brink of caffeine posioning in order to do his work (brinkmanship as defined by Schelling.)


1 This was deduced using incredible amounts of human brainpower and information gleaned from the website http://www.erowid.org/chemicals/caffeine/caffeine_dose.shtml


Back to Conspicuous Consumption and Game Theory


by Rebecca Kealoha Breeden '06 and Matthew Emerson Davis '06
Retrieved from "https://wiki.dickinson.edu/index.php?title=Special_Applications&oldid=21757"