Random Walk: Difference between revisions

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=A Random Walk Down Wall Street=
=A Random Walk Down Wall Street=
[[Image:A%20Random%20Walk%20Down%20Wall%20Street20060913034019.jpg]]
::[[Image:A%20Random%20Walk%20Down%20Wall%20Street20060913034019.jpg]]


*'''A random walk''' is one in which future steps or directions cannot be predicted on the basis of past actions.  When the term is applied to the stock market, it means that short-run changes in stock prices cannot be predicted.  This idea of a random walk is used in the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
*'''A random walk''' is one in which future steps or directions cannot be predicted on the basis of past actions.  When the term is applied to the stock market, it means that short-run changes in stock prices cannot be predicted.   


*'''Efficient Market Hypothesis'''- A theory of asset price determination that holds that asset prices embody all publicly available information. The theory implies that stock prices should be unpredictable, or follow a random walk, since changes should occur only in response to new information about fundamentals.
*Taken to its logical extreme, it means that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by the expert[[s]].
::[[Image:monkey.jpg]]


*Taken to its logical extreme, it means that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper'
[[Speculative Bubbles]]
s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by the experts.
 
[[Fundamental Analysis]]
 
[[Technical Analysis]]
 
[[Efficient-Market Hypothesis]]
 
[[Non-Random Walk Theory]]
 
[[Market Efficiency vs. Behavioral Finance]]
 
 
Dave Kotula, Matt Stone, Erik Frain, Mike Ciatto, Maggie Webster

Latest revision as of 20:32, 5 May 2007

A Random Walk Down Wall Street

  • A random walk is one in which future steps or directions cannot be predicted on the basis of past actions. When the term is applied to the stock market, it means that short-run changes in stock prices cannot be predicted.
  • Taken to its logical extreme, it means that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by the experts.

Speculative Bubbles

Fundamental Analysis

Technical Analysis

Efficient-Market Hypothesis

Non-Random Walk Theory

Market Efficiency vs. Behavioral Finance


Dave Kotula, Matt Stone, Erik Frain, Mike Ciatto, Maggie Webster