Basic Concepts: Difference between revisions
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===Heuristic Mechanism=== | ===Heuristic Mechanism=== | ||
;Availability heuristic | ;Availability heuristic | ||
;;< | ;;<b>"people may judge the probabilities of future events based on how easy those events are to imagine or to retrieve from memory" </b> | ||
;Hindsight bias | ;Hindsight bias | ||
;;< | ;;<b>"Because events which actually occurred are easier to imagine than counterfactual events that did not, people often overestimate the probability they previously attached to events which later happened" </b> | ||
;Curse of Knowledge bias | ;Curse of Knowledge bias | ||
;;< | ;;<b>"people who know a lot find it hard to imagine how little others know </b> | ||
Revision as of 01:38, 2 May 2007
Basic Concepts
Probability Judgment
Heuristic Mechanism
- Availability heuristic
- "people may judge the probabilities of future events based on how easy those events are to imagine or to retrieve from memory"
- Hindsight bias
- "Because events which actually occurred are easier to imagine than counterfactual events that did not, people often overestimate the probability they previously attached to events which later happened"
- Curse of Knowledge bias
- "people who know a lot find it hard to imagine how little others know
