Plus-Minus Count

Basic Strategy, demonstrated in the previous section, is helpful in minimizing the house advantage. Unfortunately, the key word in that last sentence is minimize, not eliminate. The strategy demonstrates the player's best response to a given situation, though in many cases, the house still stands a better chance of winning than do the players. This is only natural, as the casino would have no interest in supplying a game in which players would tend to win in the long run.

Even perfectly following Basic Strategy, a player's expected income at the end of the night will be negative. This is because Basic Strategy does not take into account what cards remain in the deck after a given hand. It is not hard to see why so many gamblers, throughout history, have tried to develop systems for various games that allow them to negate or reverse the house's advantage. In Blackjack, the most commonly known system is the Plus-Minus Count.

Instructions

Each and every card dealt in a given hand is to be designated with a numerical value.

Assign a value of +1 to cards reading 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.

Assign a value of 0 to cards reading 7, 8, and 9.

Assign a value of -1 to cards reading 10, J, Q, K, A.

Based on the composition of the deck, there are 20 cards that would receive a -1, 20 cards that would receive a +1, and 12 cards that would receive a 0. Thus, if you were playing with only a single deck, the count at the end of that deck would be 0. One way to help get the hang of counting quickly is to quickly turn cards over, one by one, and keep a running count. If you can consistantly get 0 as your final value, then you are ready to play.

The rationale behind card counting is very simple. When the count, at any given time, is greater than 0, then the deck is relatively rich in face cards. Similarly, a negative count means that there are more "bad" cards remaining in the deck than good ones. Knowing how many good and bad cards remain to be played can help a player decide how much to bet. When the deck is rich in high value cards, the dealer is more likely to bust on any particular hand. Getting a 20 or a Blackjack is also more common, but in general, the expected return from a given round will be greater for the player when the count is "high".

One complicating factor is that casinos generally play with anywhere between three and eight decks. This can lead to deceptively high or low counts, based on incidental clustering of cards. Adjusting for this is relatively simple. After a hand, consider your current count. Divide that number by the number of decks being played (which is generally public knowledge at a casino). This new number is what is called the "true count". While still susceptable to clustering, this figure is less sensitive to it.

There are also rules dictating by how much you should increase your bet for a given hand based on the true count. Suppose that you tend to bet $10 on a generic hand. For you, $10 will count as "one betting unit". The list below determines by how much you should raise your bet when the count reaches a certain level.

Bet Units.........................+/- True Count

0 (Leave table)..................-5 or less

1.....................................-4 to +1

2.....................................+2 or +3

3.....................................+4 or +5

4.....................................+6 or +7

5.....................................+8 ore more

For example, as each of your betting units are worth $10 dollars, a +5 count would dictate betting 3 units, or 30 dollars.

While there is no law against card counting, it is an action that will likely get you kicked out of a casino if you are caught. Dealers, pit bosses, and managers are in the business of making it as unfavorable for card counters as possible. As casinos are private places of business, you do not have a right to card count, even though it is technically legal. You can be asked to leave and not return. Please, for your own sake, do not provoke the 400lb bouncers. Bruises heal, but rabies is forever.

Rules of Blackjack | Basic Strategy | Plus-Minus Count | Updating Probability Charts