Basic Concepts: Difference between revisions
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===Heuristic Mechanism=== | ===Heuristic Mechanism=== | ||
;Availability heuristic | |||
;;<i>"people may judge the probabilities of future events based on how easy those events are to imagine or to retrieve from memory" </i> | ;;<i>"people may judge the probabilities of future events based on how easy those events are to imagine or to retrieve from memory" </i> | ||
;Hindsight bias | |||
;;<i>"Because events which actually occurred are easier to imagine than counterfactual events that did not, people often overestimate the probability they previously attached to events </i>which later happened" | ;;<i>"Because events which actually occurred are easier to imagine than counterfactual events that did not, people often overestimate the probability they previously attached to events </i>which later happened" | ||
;Curse of Knowledge bias | |||
;;<i>"people who know a lot find it hard to imagine how little others know </i> | ;;<i>"people who know a lot find it hard to imagine how little others know </i> | ||
Revision as of 01:38, 2 May 2007
Basic Concepts
Probability Judgment
Heuristic Mechanism
- Availability heuristic
- "people may judge the probabilities of future events based on how easy those events are to imagine or to retrieve from memory"
- Hindsight bias
- "Because events which actually occurred are easier to imagine than counterfactual events that did not, people often overestimate the probability they previously attached to events which later happened"
- Curse of Knowledge bias
- "people who know a lot find it hard to imagine how little others know
