Post-Famine Demographics

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During and after the Famine, population in Ireland began to decline at a staggering rate, resulting in a 4.5 million reduction in population from 1841 to 1911. As a proportion of the population, this rate of emigration was more than double that of any other European country. The drain in Irish population was seemingly a reversal of the growth achieved in the decades prior to the potato crisis. Emigration was undoubtedly a major source of Ireland’s depopulation, however, it is inaccurate to assume that emigration was the only cause of depopulation or that all post-Famine emigration was Famine related. Rather, it was a specific combination of changes in demographic patterns that created various avenues through which depopulation occurred. These other factors are discussed below and can certainly be attributed to the explanation of Ireland’s depopulation.

Emigration Characteristics

The tremendous outflow of emigrants during the post-Famine years meant that there was a large percentage of Irish born nationals living outside of their homeland. Consequently, by 1881 almost 40 percent of those born in Ireland no longer remained in the Emerald Isle [6]. Most emigrants journeyed to the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK. America was by far the most popular choice, with an estimated 84 percent of migrants leaving for the states from 1861-1870, which rose to 93 percent during 1891-1900 [4]. By 1891, the number of Irish living in America peaked at nearly two million. Table 2 provides data on the number of individuals who left Ireland for the various destination countries. Clearly, America received an overwhelming majority of Irish emigrants, while Great Britain served as runner up.

Source: [6]

In contrast to pre-Famine characteristics, those who emigrated after 1850 were predominately young, single adults between the ages of 15 and 35, whereas before and during the Famine the majority were families and their children. This 15 to 35 age group accounted for nearly 80 percent emigration from 1881 to 1911, and roughly 85 percent of migrants aged 15 or older were single during this time period [6]. It is known that most emigrants were unskilled individuals from rural agricultural regions in the south and west where farms were small and families were large. Also distinctive of post-Famine exodus was an equal number of male and female emigrants, which contrasts to the male-dominated emigration of other European countries during this time period. This balanced sex ratio is an important feature as it meant that Ireland’s high emigration did not cause unequal quantities of men and women in Irish communities. History has shown that unbalanced emigration can have profound demographic consequences in the home country, partly due to the effects on marriage patterns [4]. Another change in the character of emigration after the Famine was the low chance of return migration. Before the Famine, temporary migration to England was common among Irish agricultural workers. However, after the Famine struck, the wage gap narrowed between Ireland and England and America provided seemingly better labor opportunities. The Irish therefore replaced temporary movement to England with permanent emigration to America. The characteristics described above reflect the way in which Ireland’s post-1850 emigration trends differed from those in pre-Famine years. Thus, the Famine marks a turning point in Ireland’s emigration experience; however, it is not the Famine alone that accounts for such changes.

Friends and Family Effect

The friends and family effect, also referred to as ‘chain migration’, is one factor that contributed to the continuity of emigration after 1850. This effect occurred when the emigration of friends and relatives made future migration more common due to increases in the flow of information and financial support. Specifically, a ‘migratory chain’ was established when one relative was sent overseas, which was typically financed by family members pooling their funds. Once this individual settled abroad and saved enough income, they were able to repay their family members by financing the emigration of another relative. This pattern would continue until whole groups of individuals or families had moved into a new country. The migration process was eased not only through the supply of funds by migrant friends and relatives, but also because the first traveler could report back to their relations about the conditions of the new country and thus serve as an accurate and direct source of information for future emigrants. Due to this system, the journey abroad became much easier in post-Famine years for individuals whose relatives had emigrated before and during the Famine. This friends and family effect contributes to explaining how very poor people were able to emigrate, and also contributes to the overall explanation of post-Famine exodus, as this effect is shown to have caused as many as 41,000 extra emigrants per annum [6].

Emigration Decline

One indicator of the way in which Famine related emigration, or emigration in general, cannot solely account for Irish depopulation is the fact that emigration rates actually began to decline towards the end of the nineteenth century. As discussed above, emigration rates were the highest in Europe prior to the Famine. Post-Famine emigration was thus building on top of an already high rate of out-migration. These rates remained high long after the effects of the potato crisis had dissipated, yet towards the end of the 19th century the number of individuals leaving Ireland began to decline. The table below indicates a clear reduction in emigration from Ireland to other countries throughout the second half of the nineteenth century. Specifically, the emigration rate fell from approximately 15 individuals per 1,000 in the 1860’s to almost 8 per 1,000 in 1913 [6]. In comparison, pre-Famine emigration was high relative to the time at 7 people per 1,000 leaving the country every year from 1821 to 1841. This implies that the decline in post-Famine emigration was essentially a restoration of the pre-Famine rate.

Source: [6]

Economic reasons can in part explain the reduction in emigration that Ireland experienced towards the end of the 19th century. Historians Timothy Hatton and Jeffrey Williamson argue that the most important factor contributing to the reduction in out-migration was the fact that Irish economic conditions greatly improved during this time relative to the countries of prospective emigration. One indicator of increased living standards is the improvement in wage rates. The Irish agricultural sector saw impressive wage gains from 1855 onwards, rising from 61 to 75 percent of the British wage level from 1860-1913 [9]. Other indicators, such as national income per capita, increased during this time as well. Cormac O’Grada reports a tripling of this figure from 1845 to 1914, which represents an increase of 40 to 57 percent of the British level for this period [9]. As a way to measure such increases in Irish economic conditions, Hatton and Williamson compare the urban unskilled real wage rate in Ireland with those in the destination countries. While there was no convergence of wage rates before the Famine, they find significant convergence afterwards. Specifically, the ratio of U.S. to Irish wage rates fell from 2.85 in 1850/54 to 1.85 in 1909/12 and the British to Irish ratio declined from 1.71 to 1.16 during the same periods [6]. The figure below depicts the evolution of these convergences and reflects a clear decline in the Irish to foreign wage ratio. Furthermore, Hatton and Williamson conduct a time series regression analysis to demonstrate how convergence of the Irish wage rate with those in the U.S and Britain corresponds to the gradual decline in emigration. Their results show that a 10 percent decline in the wage ratio would cause the long-run emigration rate to fall by 2.35 individuals per 1,000, and these figures in fact correspond with the change in emigration rates recorded after 1850 [6].

Real Wage Ratios: U.S and Great Britain to Ireland [6]

There are several reasons why Ireland’s wages could have caught up to those of other countries; however, the most obvious reason is emigration. This is true because, as large numbers of workers leave one economy for another, the wages will be driven up in the country from which workers left, while wages will be depressed in the country to which they emigrated. It is thought that emigration can account for half of the convergence of Irish to U.S. wages between 1858 and 1908, but the other half remains unexplained [4].

The occurrence of Ireland’s converging wage ratio reveals that, as the Irish-to-overseas wage gap narrowed, the relative attractiveness of emigration began to dissipate and fewer individuals made the decision to leave Ireland. Therefore, in order to compensate for the decline in out-migration, other sources of depopulation must have existed. This further stresses the fact that it was a combination of several demographic factors, and not purely Famine related emigration, which led to the significant population reduction in post-Famine Ireland.

The Stem Family System

A major change in Irish society that occurred after the Famine was the way in which the agricultural inheritance system was organized. Before the Famine, it was the norm for a farmer to divide the family smallholdings among his sons, which created many small farms. Due to the high yield of the potato, farmers were fully able to subsist on these tiny plots of land. The functioning of this multiple heir inheritance system rested completely on the potato, so when the Potato Famine struck and depleted the country of its chief crop, the small farms that subdivision created could no longer survive. Consequently, this system of farm fragmentation was replaced by another structure called the stem family system. This new arrangement was structured to prevent the fragmentation of agricultural holdings from one generation to the next. To ensure this prevention, strict limitations were placed on inheritance. Specifically, under the stem family system only one child in each generation was allowed to inherit the family holdings. The chosen heir was not necessarily the eldest son. Rather, it was the child most suitable for the role of heir. Sometimes the youngest son was favored since he was the most likely to remain on the farm once it came time for the inheritance to be passed down, which occurred at the death of the father. Furthermore, as a way to establish and maintain one line of inheritance, the chosen heir was the only child that could marry and therefore produce the next generation. Typically, the heir could not marry until he had inherited the farm, and since the transfer of family holdings did not occur until the death of the father, this often times caused late marriages.

The nature of the stem family system has many implications for the changes in demographic patterns experienced by Ireland after the Famine. Most notable is the way in which this system placed severe restrictions on marriage. Since only the heir was allowed to marry, the possibility of marriage for the non-inheriting siblings was low, as it would mean achieving status in some nonagricultural position in a town in order to marry. The restriction on marriage created a large non-childbearing population and thus resulted in lowering the birth rate. Not only did the stem family system serve to alter marriage patterns and thus fertility, but it also increased emigration. This is because the non-inheriting siblings, who had little chance of marriage, were often left with few options but to remain on the family farm and work, or to emigrate. Since post-Famine Irish families were very large due to the population boom of the early 1800’s, there were many siblings under the stem family system that had little reason to remain in Ireland, and therefore made the decision to emigrate overseas. The new agricultural inheritance system that emerged after the Famine was thus a source of depopulation through the continuity of emigration and the reduction in marriage activity and fertility rates.

Celibacy

A distinguishing characteristic of Ireland’s post-Famine demographic behavior is a rise in the number of individuals who never married. In fact, in 1851 about 10 percent of Irish adults aged 45-54 had never married. By 1911, this percentage rose to one quarter [3]. Historians use the term ‘celibacy’ to refer to individuals who remain unmarried by age 45 or older, and therefore it is typically stated that Ireland experienced increased rates of celibacy in the second half of the nineteenth century. The table below reveals an increase in the percentage of non-married Irish adults from 1841 to 1911.

Source: [4]

There have been many attempts by historians to explain the causes of Ireland’s celibate population. The restriction on marriage under the stem family system offers one such explanation, however, like the scarce information on fertility rates in pre-Famine Ireland, the data on marriage in Ireland after the Famine requires more extensive analysis [4]. One explanation of Ireland’s reduced marriage activity is the new desire for greater living standards that the Irish possessed after the Famine. The exact source of these new material aspirations is uncertain, however it is thought that informational flows from emigrants living abroad had a definite influence on Irish attitudes. Many emigrants wrote letters to their family and friends back in Ireland and described the material splendor available in the country to which they emigrated. Also, after the Famine there was a rise in peddlers and retail shops throughout Ireland that served as evidence of what money could buy. Factors such as these are thought to have contributed to the spread of materialism in post-Famine Ireland.

The behavior of the Irish after 1850 indicates that there was a connection between new desires for greater living standards and the decision to not marry. Historians have conducted little analysis between this connection, however, Timothy Guinnane presents one possible explanation from a more economic perspective. He contends that emigration from Ireland and remaining in the country as a single person were considered by many as substitutes for obtaining a certain desired standard of living. As Guinnane explains, marriage is a choice that involves a set of costs and benefits. One the one hand, marriage in 19th century Ireland had significant economic advantages, since a spouse and children could work on the family farm and contribute to the family’s economic well-being and security. On the other hand, marriage and children are undeniably expensive, which served to impede one’s desire to maximize their standard of living. Rather than emigrating to achieve a better life abroad, the Irish realized that material aspirations could be attained by staying in Ireland as a single individual. In this way, there would be no responsibility of supporting a family and one’s entire income could be used to achieve a greater living standard. To compensate for the loss in the economic advantages from not marrying, celibate individuals found alternative ways to ensure their security. For instance, a common method was for celibate relatives and siblings to live together, as it was typical for never married male house hold heads to live with their sisters. Statistics from 1911 show that 33 percent of celibate males who were household heads aged 45-64 lived with at least one never married sister [4]. These types of household arrangements suggest the ability to form and maintain a household structure that did not revolve around a married couple. Therefore, if males could attain a suitable standard of living by residing with kin, then, from an economic standpoint, there was less incentive to marry. Furthermore, if celibate male household heads could make life as an unmarried resident of Ireland more attractive for those household siblings who otherwise might have emigrated, then this would further encourage individuals to avoid marriage. Thus, a sibling/relative based household arrangement, which was an alternative to marriage, served to reinforce, on the ends of all parties, the incentive to remain celibate. The overall effect of Ireland's increased rate of celibacy was a fall in the birthrate, which is a factor that contributed to Irish depopulation. The table above displays data that indicates a fall in the birth rate during the nineteenth century.

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