Fossil Fuel Reserves: Difference between revisions
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In the 80’s many countries falsely reported their oil reserves in order to loosen restriction on the amount of oil they could produce. In 2005 OPEC reported that they were producing 28 million barrels per day. Dr. Michael Smith, of the Energy Files, believes that world oil consumption could be as high as 120 million barrels per day, and that world production would not be able to keep up. The US Energy Information Administration has similar predictions with consumption increasing to 103 million barrels per day in 2015. | In the 80’s many countries falsely reported their oil reserves in order to loosen restriction on the amount of oil they could produce. In 2005 OPEC reported that they were producing 28 million barrels per day. Dr. Michael Smith, of the Energy Files, believes that world oil consumption could be as high as 120 million barrels per day, and that world production would not be able to keep up. The US Energy Information Administration has similar predictions with consumption increasing to 103 million barrels per day in 2015. | ||
As new oil reserves have become harder to find, the cost of developing new sources of oil has grown 15% since 2000. The Cambridge Energy Research Associates predicts that oil consumption could exceed production in only 2010, two years from now. It is also important to note that OPEC countries don’t allow external audits of their oil reserves so no one really knows how much they actually have. | As new oil reserves have become harder to find, the cost of developing new sources of oil has grown 15% since 2000. The Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicts that oil consumption could exceed production in only 2010, two years from now. It is also important to note that OPEC countries don’t allow external audits of their oil reserves so no one really knows how much they actually have. | ||
As it can be seen currently, gas prices in the US have already risen dramatically and have sparked investment in hybrid cars that use less fuel. Last year, 353,000 hybrids were sold in the US. | As it can be seen currently, gas prices in the US have already risen dramatically and have sparked investment in hybrid cars that use less fuel. Last year, 353,000 hybrids were sold in the US. | ||
Revision as of 21:34, 28 April 2008
Relevance
There is great debate on how long oil reserves will last with the constantly increasing demand for energy. If the demand continues to increase, and the supply of oil decreases, prices will increase accordingly. This increase in price will affect the consumers’ willingness to switch to alternative fuel sources and reduce CO2 emissions. In addition, there will be greater incentive for business to invest in alternative fuels and this in effect would benefit the environment. It is interesting to question whether it would be good to use all of the planet’s remaining oil reserves. On one hand, it will increase CO2 emissions which the pessimists assume would have a drastic effect on the climate, while the optimists believe the heating will be less than many expect. On the other hand, if the price gets high enough, there is more of an incentive to switch to other more sustainable energy sources. The question really becomes how much oil there really is, and how long will it be before the world is ready to change.
Optimist
The optimist would believe that there is not very much oil left in the reserves, that we have reached the peak of oil production, and that prices will rise high enough that consumers will be willing to invest in more environmentally-friendly sources of renewable energy. There is a lot of evidence that oil production has peaked and that there oil reserves are less than many believe.
The BBC reports that the growth in demand was originally thought by economists to be 2.4%, or 484,000 barrels per day for the United Kingdom. Now reports lead us to believe that is actually significantly higher at 697,000 barrels per day and growing. The difference in oil demand comes from the data from foreign countries; while the US data is believe to be very accurate. The majority of oil remains in the Middle East, in countries like Iran and Iraq, with very volatile governments that cause prices to be high. The data on oil demand growth might a bit inaccurate, but the data on the size of the oil reserves varies greatly.
In the 80’s many countries falsely reported their oil reserves in order to loosen restriction on the amount of oil they could produce. In 2005 OPEC reported that they were producing 28 million barrels per day. Dr. Michael Smith, of the Energy Files, believes that world oil consumption could be as high as 120 million barrels per day, and that world production would not be able to keep up. The US Energy Information Administration has similar predictions with consumption increasing to 103 million barrels per day in 2015.
As new oil reserves have become harder to find, the cost of developing new sources of oil has grown 15% since 2000. The Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicts that oil consumption could exceed production in only 2010, two years from now. It is also important to note that OPEC countries don’t allow external audits of their oil reserves so no one really knows how much they actually have.
As it can be seen currently, gas prices in the US have already risen dramatically and have sparked investment in hybrid cars that use less fuel. Last year, 353,000 hybrids were sold in the US.
Pessimist
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References
[How much oil do we really have?]
Population | CO2 Emission | Fossil Fuel Reserves | Renewable Energy | Free Trade | Agriculture
