Special Applications

Can Prof. McPhail's Coffee drinkinghabits be modeled as an Arms Race?

As many of us know, Prof. McPhail drinks an exorbitant amount of coffee. Our informed estimate is that Prof. McPhail consumes an average of 10 to 12 cups of coffee per day. This type of behavior is dangerous for a variety of reasons. The risks of moderate coffee consumption (Prof. McPhail's consumption would not fall in this category) include:

• Increases in blood pressure among people with high blood pressure.

• Causes insomnia, anxiety, and irritability.

• May worsen symptoms of PMS in some women.

• Can reduce fertility in women trying to conceive.

• Can cause heartburn and indigestion.

• May increase the risk of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women.

• May increase blood levels of homocysteine and the associated risk of cardiovascular disease.

We should also note that some health authorities remain concerned about the potential effects of coffee drinking on heart disease, fibrocystic breast disease, stomach ulcers, and pancreatic and colorectal cancer, although for the most part recent studies seem to be exonerating coffee on these issues. Needless to say, excessive coffee consumption can be dangerous.

So how does one find themself in a position of consuming enough caffeine in one day to kill an 18 pound rat?¹ We argue that this situation can be modeled as an Arms Race for a few different reasons. To begin with, coffee consumption, like the attainment of nuclear weapons, or the purchase of luxury items is something that will start a vicious cycle. If one country begins to build up armaments, another country will need to build up armaments just as if Prof. McPhail drinks 10 cups of coffee today, Prof. McPhail will need to drink ten cups of coffee tomorrow.

In this model it is Prof. McPhail who is playing against himself. Player 1 (row player) is Professor McPhail today, and Player 2 (column player) is Professor McPhail tomorrow.

	Even More Coffee	Coffee	No Coffee
Even More Coffee	(4,2)	(4,0)	(4,-2)
Coffee	(1,3)	(1,1)	(1,-1)
No Coffee	(0,4)	(0,2)	(0,0)

Conspicuous Consumption and Game Theory

¹ This was deduced using incredible amounts of human brainpower and information gleaned from the website http://www.erowid.org/chemicals/caffeine/caffeine_dose.shtml