Oil Prices After 9/11
commodity prices: then and now (http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/08/markets/markets_fiveyearslater/index.htm?postversion=2006090817) Average Price for 2001 2006
Crude Oil $23.00 $60.98
Gasoline $1.66 $3.03
Gold $271.20 $601.73
"Fluctuating prices in the oil, gas and gold markets were factors in trading in 2001, but didn't seem to drive day-to-day market action. That's certainly changed, with the price of oil, and to a lesser extent, gasoline and gold, often driving stocks on Wall Street. Why? For one thing, all three commodities have skyrocketed since 9/11, amid higher global demand for oil and gasoline, and in the case of gold as a hedge against inflation. U.S. light crude ended at about $21 a barrel in September 2001 and averaged about $23 that year, according to the government. This year, oil hit a record closing high of $77.03 a barrel on July 14 and is now at about $66 a barrel. As of the end of August, the average price this year was about $61 a barrel, according to the Department of Energy." (http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/08/markets/markets_fiveyearslater/index.htm?postversion=2006090817)
(http://hir.harvard.edu/articles/1297/) ___The Saudi-US relationship has consistently been described as an exchange of oil for security. Saudi-US relations held the seeds of its own destruction and was all but destroyed after the crisis of September 11, 2001. ___In the United States, many members of the media, the US Congress, and a number of US think tanks view Saudi Arabia as responsible for September 11, 2001, primarily because of the systematic development of a worldwide jihad against the United States and its values. The problems extend well beyond September 11. Some see Saudi Arabia as using its fabulous oil wealth to maintain a corrupt regime, and through its control of OPEC, blackmailing the United States into overpaying for its oil. Previously, the Saudis helped the United States by increasing oil production in times of supply stress.After September 11, the Saudis increased production by 500 mbd to help the United States meet its needs at reduced prices. ___The Saudi Oil Minister repeatedly claims to want a stable price of oil between US$22 and US$28 per OPEC barrel (corresponding to about US$26 to US$34 per US-based barrel). The Saudis have provided the United States with the assurance that they will remain the stabilizer of world oil prices. After September 11, 2001, however, that mutual interest was blown away in both the United States and Saudi Arabia. The old trust, which prospered over a 56 year period, has now disappeared. The business relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States, nevertheless, remains a substantial asset to the overall relations between the two countries. The United States is still Saudi Arabia’s main source of imports, though diminishingly so. ___The Saudis are still the largest oil exporters and the only state with rapidly accessible reserves. However, since the cultural and political links have been severely damaged, Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the United States is now based on maximizing the financial benefits from oil and minimizing the risk of US intervention in its oil fields. This creates a tenuous balance for the countries to maintain.
(http://www.nmhschool.org/tthornton/mehistorydatabase/afterseptembereleven.php) ___In March, 2002, Russian daily oil production (7.28 million barrels a day) surpassed that of Saudi Arabia. Relations between the United States and Russia were warming as quickly as they were cooling between the United States and Saudi Arabia. However, Saudi Arabia's vast reserves continued to give it much more flexibility in the marketplace. Saudi oil, at two dollars per barrel remained the cheapest to produce (New York Times, August 4, 2002) ___The price of oil on April 1 surged on the open market to its highest level in six months ($27/barrel) in the wake of rising tensions in the Middle East and a demand by Iraq that OPEC agree to use oil prices as a tactical weapon to pressure the U.S. and Europe to rein in Israel. ___On April 25, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah met with President Bush in Texas and warned him that there would be "grave consequences" for the United States in the Arab world unless America took a more balanced position in the region (i.e. moderated its support for Israel). At the same time, he pledged that Saudi Arabia would not use oil as a weapon against the U.S. ___On Nov. 26, the New York Times reported that American dependence on Saudi oil remained heavy, standing at approximately 17%. Afghan warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum, whose intransigence in the early 1990s was partly to blame for the Taliban coming to power, announced he was pulling out of the new agreement and said further that he would deny any new government access to the oil and gas reserves in the north which he controlled.
(http://money.cnn.com/2001/09/11/markets/oil/) ___Oil prices surged Tuesday in anticipation of an expected U.S. retaliation in the Middle East to terrorist attacks in the United States. ___"There is panic buying of metals, gold and oil -- it is complete pandemonium," said Robin Bhar, metals analyst at Standard Bank London. "Gold and oil have gone up and it is a drive towards safe-haven territory."
(http://www.rinf.com/columnists/news/us-oil-and-defense-industry-chiefs-cash-in)
(http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2001/nf20011030_2363.htm) ___Since the U.S. began its war on terrorism in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, oil markets have been jittery about the possibility of a supply disruption -- with good reason. The U.S. imports 51.6% of its oil needs, and half of that from OPEC. With Saudi Arabia and other Mideast oil-producing nations facing potential destabilization because of U.S. bombing in Afghanistan, the chance of interrupted oil supplies is greater than it has been since Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. ___The events of September 11 in themselves didn't threaten oil supplies, but the market immediately factored in a new nervousness. That didn't last very long, and the price came down again within a week. Clearly, there is a new threat. ___Nobody thinks the very careful [U.S. military] action that's being taken at the moment poses any specific threat to oil supply. ___We were in that middle ground in the few days after September 11, where the market was clearly expressing alarm, reflected in price. But it proved to be short-lived, and didn't reflect an actual physical threat [to supply].
