Intermediate Strategy: Updating Strategy Based on Plus/Minus Count

Introduction

With few exceptions, if you walk into a casino, you will walk out without your money. The reason for this is simple: the games are rigged. Not rigged in the cheap, made-for-television movie sense, but rigged none the less. This is because the games are based on rules that grant a statistical bias in favor of the house. It is no wonder that people often attribute any winnings to lady luck, for in the long run, you will lose. You have two choices. Either you can rely on chance or you can use probability to decrease your chance of loss.

There are two types of games that one can play in the casino, games played against other players and games played against the house. The former, including games such as the infamous "Texas Hold'em", is a complex interaction between players that requires knowledge not only of probability, but also of psychology to some extent. The latter, which is the focus of this study, is simpler, in that the dealer is forced to act according to the rules of the house. But within this second branch of casino games, there is a further distinction to be made.

Consider a game like Roulette. A ball is dropped onto a spinning wheel which eventually comes to a stop. At some point during the round, the ball comes to rest in one section or another. Your winnings are determined based on where you wagered that the ball would stop. There are many different types of bets with different rates of return, but what matters is that the outcome of any individual or group of rounds has no impact on any future round. This is called the law of independent events. Here is where blackjack differs.

As Blackjack is played with a finite number of cards, even in online versions, each card dealt equates to one more card that is no longer in circulation. Some players, with talent and sufficient practice, can become adept at carrying a "count" of all cards that have been dealt with the aim of anticipating which cards are available for future play. Such a count allows players to adjust their bets in order to maximize payoffs.

((Rules of Blackjack)) ((+/- Count)) ((Updating Probability Charts))