Maoist Insurgency as a Prisoner's Dilemma

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The conflict as a 2x2 matrix

• Two distinct warring factions (one partly constitutional and another rebel outfit), two choice games.

• By no means is this representation comprehensive and it only touches one of the many problems associated with peaceful resolution to the uprising.

• Two clear strategies for both: Modify position and Status quo

• Each has a dominating strategy: ‘status quo’. However it serves only one party’s vested interest and is not a popular public choice. Though this keeps them in better position it never wins the hearts of the public, the main factor for whom both party to the conflict claim to be representing and fighting for.

• Another strategy is ‘modify position’: since each side claims that their fight is for the public, both agree that without winning the heart of the public they won’t achieve their goals. Contrary to their fighting strategy the public desire peace and an end to all forms of hostility. So modifying position seems to be the option for both to win the public’s heart.

• The outcome that is generated if both sides agree to go for modify position strategy is termed as “Peace”- a joint cooperation solution, which is a win-win situation for all.

Description

The Payoffs

Though the conflict in Nepal seems to be between two distinct antagonistic forces, the total power to influence each other is distributed among four players. It is a strange phenomenon because two parties are in conflict but four players hold the power key. The two players to the conflict are the Maoists and the government and the remaining two players are the political parties (seven party alliance) and the international community.

The basis for generating payoffs is the relative power each player has to influence each other because none of the players have sole capacity to sway away the whole situation in their favor.

Royal Government

It has power over the country’s security forces, who can use power (mostly military) to subdue people or dissenters. And, the King, who is currently heading the council of ministers, reasserts that his sole aim is to contain the Maoist insurgency. The Royal regime cannot do as it likes because most of the strong influence and opposition from the SPA and the international community. Especially, the international community has a strong influence because all the arms and ammunitions for the security forces is donated by it, particularly the US, India and the UK. So, any halt in the arms aid, which the current situation, directly impacts the security forces ability to withstand the armed opposition from the rebels.

Maoists

They also do not have the total power because their activities are directly influenced by the SPA and the international community. Especially the SPA, after inking the 12-point understanding, has a powerful influence on them. Moreover, the Maoists have been saying that their revolution is against the feudal system that harbors the King and monarchy, and exploits people. So, considering the public sentiment and the pressure from the human rights agencies, they cannot do as they like.

SPA

Though the political parties are sidelined by the King, they nevertheless have a strong influence in the power structure. Based on the last general election they represent over 90 percent of the population. Since the public have been supporting democracy in Nepal, it obviously means that they are lending their full support to the SPA. So, both the gun wielding sides cannot ignore them, though the King has ignored them for quite some time now, creating mayhem and bloodshed. Moreover, the international community have lend full support to the democratic parties and have been time and again urging the King to return back the hijacked democracy back to the people and their legitimate representatives.

International Community

The US, UK, India and the EU and the UN have a huge influence in all the three players. It is because of fear of strong retaliation from the international community the King is not able to impose total ban on the political parties. Obvious, to defuse any situation they have played a major role in Nepal. They had time and again mediated talks between the SPA and the Royal palace. With tools such as finance, aid, loans, military support and access to exclusive privileges, the international community influences the three players and plays a pivotal role in defusing crisis. Even the rebels have committed cooperation with the UN and have been calling for UN mediation in Nepalese conflict.