Summary
Summary
Though the total power is divided among four players in Nepal, the conflict is between two warring faction. This model fits the Prisoner’s Dilemma and the deadlock has not changed or shifted in the last one decade. Using a bipolar conflict and relative power distribution among the four parties, a payoff matrix can be generated.
If none of the warring factions change stance then the situation remains at outcome War. However, if either side goes for strategy Modify position and the other does not then the outcome will be either Conflict or Conflict*. If both sides goes for Modify position then the outcome is Peace, the most desired and optimal outcome. The game is non-cooperative and nonnegotiable in its own. Hence, without an exogenous third party(s) intervention the situation remains deadlocked. The alliance of seven political parties (SPA) and the international community can act as third party interventionist to defuse the deadlock.
How can the deadlock be broken? How can the payoffs be manipulated so as to end up at outcome Peace? Through constant pressure, incentive and disincentive mechanisms directed at convincing the two warring factions to modify position, the third party can enforces its influence. We have identified three factors that can help encourage the two warring factions to modify their position in order to clear the way to attain peace.
- Creating an environment of trust
- A situation should be created where there are no doubts and ambiguities between the parties in conflict. An environment of trust should be created to foster negotiations.
- Enhancing communication
- One of the major hindrances to a Prisoner’s Dilemma is the lack of communication between the players. A situation should be created where effective communication channels can be established and the roots followed.
- Concurrent strategy shift due to third party exogenous intervention
- In games like this change in strategy by one player only will in no way break the deadlock. The interventionist should ensure that both the parties in the conflict change their strategies concurrently so that none will defect after a pact is hammered out. The international community and the SPA can play a crucial role in ensuring that the King and the Maoists change their stance concurrently. Former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, in a paper presented at Columbia University on March 22, 2006 rightly said, “ If there are to be negotiations with the Palace, negotiations with the Maoists must also take place simultaneously.”
