Basic Concepts

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Basic Concepts

Probability Judgment

Heuristic Mechanism

  • Availability heuristic
"people may judge the probabilities of future events based on how easy those events are to imagine or to retrieve from memory"
  • Hindsight bias
"Because events which actually occurred are easier to imagine than counterfactual events that did not, people often overestimate the probability they previously attached to events which later happened"
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