Basic Concepts

Basic Concepts

Probability Judgment

Heuristic Mechanism

Availability heuristic

"people may judge the probabilities of future events based on how easy those events are to imagine or to retrieve from memory"

Hindsight bias

"Because events which actually occurred are easier to imagine than counterfactual events that did not, people often overestimate the probability they previously attached to events which later happened"

Curse of Knowledge bias

"people who know a lot find it hard to imagine how little others know