The independence of consumption and current income
The second neutrality Akerlof tackles is: “Other than its contribution to a consumer’s wealth, current income has no independent effect on the consumption of a utility-maximizing consumer.” (Akerlof 20)
This hypothesis was slowly developed through the work of Irving Fisher, Milton Friedman and John Maynard Keynes. Fisher formed a model of an individual’s consumption over two periods, expressed by:
C= U(c1, c2)
c1 signifies the first period, c2 signifies the second period, and U signifies utility. Looking at this function, Friedman reasoned, if the consumer maximizes the function, “a dollar of income earned today will have the same effect on her current consumption as a discounted dollar earned in the second period.” Friedman believes a consumer will spend the portion of his wealth that will still ensure long-term security. This portion of his wealth is defined as permanent income.
Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis: consumption is affected by permanent, not current income. A consumer will spend more of their income if interest rates are in their favor.
John Maynard Keynes also argues that an individual's economic decisions are dependent on their current disposable income. Traditional macroeconomic theory claims that consumer spending is predictable, follows certain rules and can be easily calculated. Keynes' consumption function is:
C = a + cYd
C signifies consumer expenditure, a signifies autonomous consumption, or necessary expenses. c signifies marginal propensity to consume, or MPC. MPC, is the increase in consumer spending when disposable income rises by $1, because of a pay rise or a decrease in expenses.
MPC = (change in consumer spending / change in disposable income)
Keynes wrote, “the fundamental psychological law, upon which we are entitled to depend with great confidence… men are disposed, as a rule and on the average, to increase their consumption as income increases, but not by as much as the increase in income” (Keynes, The General Theory, 1936 p. 96). Keynes and his followers assumed the MPC was an reliable tool for predicting consumer spending and economic trends in the future.
However, Akerlof's research suggests that an individual's rationale is more complex, and includes other factors. These factors could persuade the individual to consume more than their disposable income allows. According to Akerlof's research, consumption and current income are disconnected because:
1. The sociology of consumption should be taken into account. Consumption is determined by what people believe they should consume, whether these are qualified as entitlements or as obligations, and current income can be an entitlement or an obligation.
2. Consumption is largely dictated by social expectations, and what people believe they are expected to do, and what they aspire to be. Individuals buy certain products, called cultural goods, because of their societal significance. Examples of cultural goods are "the literature they read, the music they hear, and the art they buy" (Akerlof 24). An individual may want to attend concerts with his friends, although the tickets are much more expensive than he would like. He might go anyway, so he won't feel left out. He would have a larger consumer expenditure than Milton Friedman or John Maynard Keynes would have expected, because of these cultural goods.
3. Consumption can be divided into entitlements and obligations. Entitlements are personal pressures, when an individual believes he has earned a reward, upon the celebration of a milestone, or upon pay day. Obligations are when an individual feels pressured to spend, according to the standards in his social circle. Akerlof gives the example of a Wall Street banker. The banker could wear discounted suits, and carry a beat-up suit, but his appearance would not be impressive.
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Sources
Akerlof, George. The Missing Motivation in Macroeconomics. [1]
Tutor2U. Consumption Theory. [2] Accessed November 27, 2007.
