Population

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Population growth trends on the global scale have been closely studied with one underlying question in mind: Can we continue to sustain our global population given the current projections for the near and also distant future? There have been countless numbers of reports done projecting the population growth trends, with an extremely wide range of results.

It is generally accepted that an astonishing 95% of population increase in the future will come from currently developing nations. One of the key factors in determining the population levels in the future is the fertility rates of nations, which is very high in developing nations as opposed to developed nations which generally have lower fertility rates.

There is no question that world population is sharply increasing and this raises a variety of both economic and environmental obstacles: supplying enough food and fresh water for the global population, depletion of resources, there needs to be more urban, residential and industrial space for development and technological advancements. These obstacles are just a few of the many challenges that will accompany a growing population. It should be noted that, with regards to population growth, there are few people who fall under the category of “optimist”.

Optimist

With the vast and varying numbers of world population projections, environmental optimists tend to accept the lower end of these estimates. Those who do look at the lower end of these projections believe that many of the studies done grossly over-exaggerate the reality of the situation. Some even go as far as to say some of the data is inflated to increase the public’s awareness into overpopulation; making people believe that things at present are more problematic than they really are.

Another talking point is that of fertility rates and replacement rates. Population growth optimists point out that in many countries, the fertility rate is actually lower than the replacement rate. In the more developed nations, such as the United States and a large amount of European nations, their fertility rates are below, and in some cases, well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. With developing nations having extremely high fertility rates, it could be fair to say that as they move toward the “developed” status, their fertility rates will potentially taper off. This argument is fueled by optimists’ faith in the advancement of technology for the well being and progression of society.

The CIA World Factbook reports the 2000 world fertility rate to be 2.80 and the 2007 world fertility rate to be 2.59.

Pessimist

By a similar mindset, pessimists’ look more toward the higher ends of these population growth estimates and even furthermore towards the concept of overpopulation.

Overpopulation is the relationship between population and the availability of resources to sustain that population. So by definition, if an island can support 9 people and there are 10 living there, it would be deemed as overpopulated. Some pessimists even say that we are currently overpopulated from a global perspective, not to mention the definitive increase in population that will happen in the future. Some of the effects of overpopulation would be: starvation & malnutrition, species extinction, insufficient clean water, increases in pollution and the rapid depletion of natural resources, to name a few.

Another cynical outlook by pessimists is toward the development of technology and its impact on population growth. For example, take a look at Africa. Most African nations have an extremely high fertility rate and are rampant with famine, disease and poverty. The expected increase in technology will create more efficient and cheaper medical practices and lower costs and availability of food which will lead to longer life expectancy and an increase in the fertility rates. Although certainly these are not negative impacts of technology, they do not address the rise in fertility that is the main ingredient of overpopulation. They do believe that technology should be used in moving developing nations toward the developed stage, as this should, in theory, reduce the fertility rate.